Convergence of Population Structures of the European Union Member States—The Past and the Future

ABSTRACT

The Eurostat projections indicate that, by 2050, most of the European Union member states will see a fall in their population size, a drop in the share of young people, and a simultaneous rise in the share of elderly persons. There exist visible disproportions in the population structures between the EU countries, and the ageing of the population has two dimensions it is occurring from the top down and from the bottom up. The goal of the study was to assess the stage of advancement and diversity of the ageing of population in the past and in the year 2050. Convergence models were designed for ten variables (indicators for structures by age, demographic dependency, median age) and a synthetic variable characterising the stage of advancement of the ageing of the structures. The occurrence of beta- and sigma-convergence of population structures in EU-27 in the years 2004–2020 and 2020–2050 were verified. The results indicate that absolute beta-convergence of the variables characterising the population structures in the EU countries happened in the past and will happen in around 2050. No unambiguous proof has been found for sigma-convergence, i.e., for any significant decrease over time in the diversity between the countries in terms of the studied variables that characterise the ageing process. In the past, the bottom-up ageing has occurred faster than the top-down ageing, while, in the future, it is expected to be the other way round.