Predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients at Kinshasa Medical Center and a survival analysis: a retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite it being a global pandemic, there is little research examining the clinical features of severe COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to identify predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients at Kinshasa Medical Center (KMC). METHODS: In this retrospective, observational, cohort study carried out at the Kinshasa Medical Center (KMC) between March 10, 2020 and July 10, 2020, we included all adult inpatients (≥ 18 years old) with a positive COVID-19 PCR result. The end point of the study was survival. The study population was dichotomized into survivors and non-survivors group. Kaplan-Meier plot was used for survival analyses. The Log-Rank test was employed to compare the survival curves. Predictors of mortality were identified by Cox regression models. The significance level of p value was set at 0.05. RESULTS: 432 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were identified and only 106 (24.5%) patients with moderate, severe or critical illness (mean age 55.6 ± 13.2 years old, 80.2% were male) were included in this study, of whom 34 (32%) died during their hospitalisation. The main complications of the patients included ARDS in 59/66 (89.4%) patients, coagulopathy in 35/93 (37.6%) patients, acute cardiac injury in 24/98 (24.5%) patients, AKI in 15/74 (20.3%) patients and secondary infection in 12/81 (14.8%) patients. The independent predictors of mortality were found to be age [aHR 1.38; 95% CI 1.10-1.82], AKI stage 3 [aHR 2.51; 95% CI 1.33-6.80], proteinuria [aHR 2.60; 95% CI 1.40-6.42], respiratory rate [aHR 1.42; 95% CI 1.09-1.92] and procalcitonin [aHR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.14]. The median survival time of the entire group was 12 days. The cumulative survival rate of COVID-19 patients was 86.9%, 65.0% and 19.9% respectively at 5, 10 and 20 days. Levels of creatinine (p = 0.012), were clearly elevated in non-survivors compared with survivors throughout the clinical course and increased deterioration. CONCLUSION: Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients is high, particularly in intubated patients and is associated with age, respiratory rate, proteinuria, procalcitonin and acute kidney injury.