Lives saved and lost in the first six month of the US COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective cost-benefit analysis.
PLoS One
; 17(1): e0261759, 2022.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1643248
ABSTRACT
In the beginning of the COVID-19 US epidemic in March 2020, sweeping lockdowns and other aggressive measures were put in place and retained in many states until end of August of 2020; the ensuing economic downturn has led many to question the wisdom of the early COVID-19 policy measures in the US. This study's objective was to evaluate the cost and benefit of the US COVID-19-mitigating policy intervention during the first six month of the pandemic in terms of COVID-19 mortality potentially averted, versus mortality potentially attributable to the economic downturn. We conducted a synthesis-based retrospective cost-benefit analysis of the full complex of US federal, state, and local COVID-19-mitigating measures, including lockdowns and all other COVID-19-mitigating measures, against the counterfactual scenario involving no public health intervention. We derived parameter estimates from a rapid review and synthesis of recent epidemiologic studies and economic literature on regulation-attributable mortality. According to our estimates, the policy intervention saved 866,350-1,711,150 lives (4,886,214-9,650,886 quality-adjusted life-years), while mortality attributable to the economic downturn was 57,922-245,055 lives (2,093,811-8,858,444 life-years). We conclude that the number of lives saved by the spring-summer lockdowns and other COVID-19-mitigation was greater than the number of lives potentially lost due to the economic downturn. However, the net impact on quality-adjusted life expectancy is ambiguous.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
Public Health
/
Models, Statistical
/
Cost-Benefit Analysis
/
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Qualitative research
/
Reviews
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0261759
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