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Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.
Julien, Jovan; Ayer, Turgay; Tapper, Elliot B; Barbosa, Carolina; Dowd, William N; Chhatwal, Jagpreet.
  • Julien J; Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
  • Ayer T; Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
  • Tapper EB; Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
  • Barbosa C; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
  • Dowd WN; RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
  • Chhatwal J; RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
Hepatology ; 75(6): 1480-1490, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1649091
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ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND

AIMS:

Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality. APPROACH AND

RESULTS:

We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and long-term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID-19 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID-19 occurs and drinking patterns do not change. One-year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500-8600) additional ALD-related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600-19,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000-1100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID-19 will lead to 100 (100-200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700-2900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS:

A short-term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase long-term ALD-related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high-risk alcohol drinking in the United States.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / COVID-19 / Liver Diseases, Alcoholic / Liver Neoplasms Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Hepatology Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Hep.32272

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / COVID-19 / Liver Diseases, Alcoholic / Liver Neoplasms Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Hepatology Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Hep.32272