Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations.
Lancet Reg Health Am
; 5: 100133, 2022 Jan.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1649911
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years.METHODS:
We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%).FINDINGS:
At 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively. INTERPRETATIONS Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children.FUNDING:
National Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4).
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Language:
English
Journal:
Lancet Reg Health Am
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.lana.2021.100133
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