The spatial pattern and spatio-temporal evolution of COVID-19 in China

ABSTRACT

Objective To better control the spread of covID-19, it is important to understand the spatial pattern of covID-19 and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, and explore its distribution and diffusion laws. Methods In this study, based on the daily incidence data of covID-19 in china from January 22 to May 26, 2020, spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the spatial pattern of covID-19, and center of gravity trajectory migration algorithm was used to explore spatial-temporal evolution process. Results In the study period, covID-19 had strong spatial dependence at the provincial scale. From January 22 to May 26, 2020, the global spatial correlation of covID-19 showed a trend of increasing from strong to weak. Moran’s I was negative in the range of (-0.04,-0.02) and had a small fluctuation range. The covID-19 epidemic in china showed a general pattern with Wuhan city in Hubei Province as the center, spreading to the surrounding cities and random distribution. The domestic epidemic were mainly high-low clusters, and high-high clusters were distributed in Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions, while Hubei Province had been in the high-low clusters. In the study period, the high-low cluster was only one province in Hubei Province, and the low-low clusters were mainly distributed in Heilongjiang Province and Tibet Autonomous Region. During the T,-T3 period, the epidemic spread rapidly from Wuhan City to the northwest. During the T4-T6 period, the epidemic gradually spread to the southwest. During the T7-T9 period, the epidemic spread to the northeast. Conclusions In the future epidemic prevention and control work, we should pay more attention to the study of epidemic spatial diffusion model, explore the factors affecting diffusion, so as to provide strong theoretical support for the formulation of precise epidemic prevention measures.