Unemployment and Crime in US Cities During the Coronavirus Pandemic.
J Urban Health
; 99(1): 82-91, 2022 02.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1652452
ABSTRACT
Unemployment and violence both increased during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States (US), but no studies to our knowledge have examined their association. Using data for 16 US cities from January 2018 to July 2020, we estimated the association between acute changes in unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic and violent and acquisitive crime. We used negative binomial regression models and parametric g-computation to estimate average differences in crime incidents if the highest and lowest levels of unemployment observed in each city had been sustained across the exposure period (March-July 2020), compared with observed unemployment in each city-month. During the pandemic, the percentage of the adult population who were unemployed was 8.1 percentage points higher than expected, on average. Increases in unemployment were associated with increases in firearm violence and homicide. For example, we estimated an average increase of 3.3 firearm violence incidents (95% CI - 0.2, 6.7) and 2.0 homicides (95% CI - 0.2, 3.9) per city-month from March to July 2020 if all cities experienced their highest versus observed level of unemployment. There was no association between unemployment and aggravated assault or any acquisitive crime. Findings suggest that the sharp rise in unemployment during the pandemic may have contributed to increases in firearm violence and homicide, but not other crime. Additional research is needed on mechanisms of association, generalizability, and modifying factors.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Firearms
/
Coronavirus
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Adult
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
J Urban Health
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11524-021-00605-3
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