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Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries.
Konstantinoudis, Garyfallos; Cameletti, Michela; Gómez-Rubio, Virgilio; Gómez, Inmaculada León; Pirani, Monica; Baio, Gianluca; Larrauri, Amparo; Riou, Julien; Egger, Matthias; Vineis, Paolo; Blangiardo, Marta.
  • Konstantinoudis G; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. g.konstantinoudis@imperial.ac.uk.
  • Cameletti M; Department of Economics, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
  • Gómez-Rubio V; Departamento de Matemáticas, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete, Spain.
  • Gómez IL; National Centre of Epidemiology (CNE), Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
  • Pirani M; Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
  • Baio G; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Larrauri A; Department of Statistical Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
  • Riou J; National Centre of Epidemiology (CNE), Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
  • Egger M; Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
  • Vineis P; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
  • Blangiardo M; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 482, 2022 01 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1655580
Preprint
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ABSTRACT
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Bayes Theorem / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-28157-3

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Bayes Theorem / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-28157-3