The doubling time analysis for modified infectious disease Richards model with applications to COVID-19 pandemic.
Math Biosci Eng
; 19(3): 3242-3268, 2022 01 21.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1662737
ABSTRACT
In the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms for emerging infectious diseases, simple phenomenological models could provide a starting point to assess the potential outcomes of unfolding public health emergencies, particularly when the epidemiological characteristics of the disease are poorly understood or subject to substantial uncertainty. In this study, we employ the modified Richards model to analyze the growth of an epidemic in terms of 1) the number of times cumulative cases double until the epidemic peaks and 2) the rate at which the intervals between consecutive doubling times increase during the early ascending stage of the outbreak. Our theoretical analysis of doubling times is combined with rigorous numerical simulations and uncertainty quantification using synthetic and real data for COVID-19 pandemic. The doubling-time approach allows to employ early epidemic data to differentiate between the most dangerous threats, which double in size many times over the intervals that are nearly invariant, and the least transmissible diseases, which double in size only a few times with doubling periods rapidly growing.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Diseases
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Qualitative research
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Mbe.2022150
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