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Critical timing and extent of public health interventions to control outbreaks dominated by SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australia: a mathematical modelling study.
Zou, Zhuoru; Fairley, Christopher K; Shen, Mingwang; Scott, Nick; Xu, Xianglong; Li, Zengbin; Li, Rui; Zhuang, Guihua; Zhang, Lei.
  • Zou Z; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China.
  • Fairley CK; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Monash Universit
  • Shen M; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China.
  • Scott N; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
  • Xu X; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Monash Universit
  • Li Z; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China.
  • Li R; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China.
  • Zhuang G; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China. Electronic address: zhuanggh@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.
  • Zhang L; China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710061, China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Monash Universit
Int J Infect Dis ; 115: 154-165, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1664990
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

The exact characteristics of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak that trigger public health interventions are poorly defined. The aim of this study was to assess the critical timing and extent of public health interventions to contain COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia.

METHODS:

A practical model was developed using existing epidemic data in Australia. The effective combinations of public health interventions and the critical number of daily cases for intervention commencement under various scenarios of changes in transmissibility of new variants and vaccination coverage were quantified.

RESULTS:

In the past COVID-19 outbreaks in four Australian states, the number of reported cases on the day that interventions commenced strongly predicted the size and duration of the outbreaks. In the early phase of an outbreak, containing a wildtype-dominant epidemic to a low level (≤10 cases/day) would require effective combinations of social distancing and face mask use interventions to be commenced before the number of daily reported cases reaches six. Containing an Alpha-dominant epidemic would require more stringent interventions that commence earlier. For the Delta variant, public health interventions alone would not contain the epidemic unless the vaccination coverage was ≥70%.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study highlights the importance of early and decisive action in the initial phase of an outbreak. Vaccination is essential for containing variants.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Oceania Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.IJID.2021.11.024

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Oceania Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.IJID.2021.11.024