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Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic.
Lou, Jingzhi; Zheng, Hong; Zhao, Shi; Cao, Lirong; Wong, Eliza Ly; Chen, Zigui; Chan, Renee Wy; Chong, Marc Kc; Zee, Benny Cy; Chan, Paul Ks; Yeoh, Eng-Kiong; Wang, Maggie H.
  • Lou J; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: jzlou@qq.com.
  • Zheng H; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: hongzheng@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Zhao S; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com.
  • Cao L; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: caolr@link.cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Wong EL; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: lywong@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Chen Z; Department of Microbiology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: zigui.chen@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Chan RW; Department of Paediatric, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: reneewy@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Chong MK; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: marc@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Zee BC; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: bzee@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Chan PK; Department of Microbiology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: paulkschan@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Yeoh EK; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: yeoh_ek@cuhk.edu.hk.
  • Wang MH; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.
J Infect Public Health ; 15(3): 338-342, 2022 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1665197
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong.

METHODS:

In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt.

FINDINGS:

We found a significantly positive relationship between Rt and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between Rt and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of Rt were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the Rt variability with the R2.

CONCLUSION:

Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: J Infect Public Health Journal subject: Communicable Diseases / Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: J Infect Public Health Journal subject: Communicable Diseases / Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article