Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant.
Virol J
; 18(1): 253, 2021 12 20.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1673917
ABSTRACT
The novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 are a great global concern for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, how the novel variants predominate and replace existing strains remains elusive. In this study, I simulated the infection spread to investigate what kinds of viral, immunological, and epidemiological factors affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variants. The results showed that the increase of the transmissibility of the novel variant substantially enhanced the predominance probability. In addition, the increasing trend of the infection spread, the large case number of the epidemic, and the ability of immune escape of the novel variant increased the predominance probability. A small number of cases and a decreasing trend of an entire epidemic, including not only the novel variant but also earlier strains, are especially important to reduce the chance of the predominance of the novel variant and delay the process. Good control of the COVID-19 epidemic could make the disease burden small and sequester the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 novel variants.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Topics:
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Virol J
Journal subject:
Virology
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12985-021-01726-6
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