Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China.
Wellcome Open Res
; 5: 143, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1675237
ABSTRACT
Background:
As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide.Methods:
We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries.Results:
Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries.Conclusions:
Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world. These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Language:
English
Journal:
Wellcome Open Res
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Wellcomeopenres.15805.3
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