Weather as a potential cause of regional differences in the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Poland: implications for epidemic forecasting.
Pol Arch Intern Med
; 132(1)2022 01 28.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1675433
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
COVID19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. Little is known on the impact of weather conditions on the transmission of COVID19.OBJECTIVES:
We aimed to assess correlations between 6 different meteorologic parameters and the transmission dynamics of the COVID19 pandemic in 16 administrative regions (voivodeships) of Poland. PATIENTS ANDMETHODS:
Data for analysis were obtained from epidemiologic reports of the Polish Ministry of Health. For each voivodeship, one synoptic station was selected to provide meteorologic data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures, variability of daily temperature, sunshine duration, relative humidity, and wind speed. The periods with significant weather impact were determined using multiple linear regression. Crosscorrelation function (CCF) and random forest models were used to assess correlations between meteorologic parameters and the incidence of COVID19 as well as the number of hospitalizations for COVID19.RESULTS:
In all voivodeships, the incidence of new COVID19 cases correlated with relative humidity (CCF = 0.41), daily maximum temperature (CCF = -0.41), variability of daily temperature (CCF = -0.40), and sunshine duration (CCF = 0.35). For all parameters, a similar time lag of 10 to 14 days was noted. There were no significant correlations for wind speed in most voivodeships. The risk of hospitalization for COVID19 correlated with daily maximum temperature (CCF = -0.48; time lag, 10 days) and sunshine duration (CCF = -0.45; time lag, 10 days).CONCLUSIONS:
The delayed effects of the meteorologic factors on the incidence of COVID19 and the risk of hospitalization for COVID19 were observed. In each voivodeship, the dynamics of COVID19 transmission was most strongly affected by relative humidity and daily maximum temperature.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Pamw.16110
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