COVID-19: identifying the main outcome predictors. A retrospective cohort study in Northern Italy.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The need for efficient drugs and early treatment of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection developing COVID-19 symptoms is of primary importance in daily clinical practice and it is certainly among the most difficult medical challenges in the current century. Recognizing those patients who will need stronger clinical efforts could effectively help doctors anticipate the eventual need for intensification of care (IoC) and choose the best treatment in order to avoid worse outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We enrolled 501 patients, consecutively admitted to our two COVID hospitals, and collected their clinical, anamnestic and laboratory data on admission. The aim of this retrospective study was to identify those data that are strictly associated with COVID-19 outcomes (IoC and in-hospital death) and that could somehow be intended as predictors of these outcomes. This allowed us to provide a "sketch" of the patient who undergoes, more often than others, an intensification of care and/or in-hospital death. RESULTS: Males were found to have a double risk of needing an IoC (OR=2.11) and a significant role was played by both the PaO2/FiO2 ratio on admission (OR=0.99) and serum LDH (OR=1.01). The main predictors of in-hospital death were age (OR=1.08) and the PaO2/FiO2 ratio on admission (OR=0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Male patients with high serum LDH on admission are those who undergo more often an intensification of care among COVID-19 inpatients. Both age and respiratory performances on admission modify the prognosis within the hospitalization period.