Evaluation of the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Based on Modified SEIR Model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the SEIR model is modified. According to the characteristics of COVID-19, a new room of people under quarantine is added, and the incubation period infection rate is introduced. We define the disease-free equilibrium and prove the stability of the equilibrium. Local stability is proved by examinating Characteristic polynomial, and global stability is proved by constructing Lyapunov Function. In addition, the effect of the epidemic prevention measures are evaluated by numerical simulation. The research shows that the post exposure infection rate and quarantine rate are the most crucial parameters of this disease. © 2021, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.