On the global trends and spread of the COVID-19 outbreak: preliminary assessment of the potential relation between location-specific temperature and UV index.

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus, since its first outbreak in December, has, up till now, affected approximately 114,542 people across 115 countries. Many international agencies are devoting efforts to enhance the understanding of the evolving COVID-19 outbreak on an international level, its influences, and preparedness. At present, COVID-19 appears to affect individuals through person-to-person means, like other commonly found cold or influenza viruses. It is widely known and acknowledged that viruses causing influenza peak during cold temperatures and gradually subside in the warmer temperature, owing to their seasonality. Thus, COVID-19, due to its regular flu-like symptoms, is also expected to show similar seasonality and subside as the global temperatures rise in the northern hemisphere with the onset of spring. Despite these speculations, however, the systematic analysis in the global perspective of the relation between COVID-19 spread and meteorological parameters is unavailable. Here, by analyzing the region- and city-specific affected global data and corresponding meteorological parameters, we show that there is an optimum range of temperature and UV index strongly affecting the spread and survival of the virus, whereas precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, etc. have no effect on the virus. Unavailability of pharmaceutical interventions would require greater preparedness and alert for the effective control of COVID-19. Under these conditions, the information provided here could be very helpful for the global community struggling to fight this global crisis. It is, however, important to note that the information presented here clearly lacks any physiological evidences, which may merit further investigation. Thus, any attempt for management, implementation, and evaluation strategies responding to the crisis arising due to the COVID-19 outbreak must not consider the evaluation presented here as the foremost factor.