A decision support system for prioritised COVID-19 two-dosage vaccination allocation and distribution.

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a decision support system (DSS) that integrates GIS, analytics, and simulation methods to help develop a priority-based distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in a large urban setting. The methodology applies novel hierarchical heuristic-simulation procedures to create a holistic algorithm for prioritising the process of demand allocation and optimising vaccine distribution. The Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia with a population of over five million is used as a case study. Three vaccine supply scenarios, namely limited, excessive, and disruption, were formulated to operationalise a two-dose vaccination program. Vaccine distribution with hard constraints were simulated and then further validated with sensitivity analyses. The results show that vaccines can be prioritised to society's most vulnerable segments and distributed using the current logistics network with 10 vehicles. Compared with other vaccine distribution plans with no prioritisation, such as equal allocation of vaccines to local government areas based on population size or one on a first-come-first-serve basis, the plans generated by the proposed DSS ensure prioritised vaccination of the most needed and vulnerable population. The aim is to curb the spread of the infection and reduce mortality rate more effectively. They also achieve vaccination of the entire population with less logistical resources required. As such, this study contributes to knowledge and practice in pandemic vaccine distribution and enables governments to make real-time decisions and adjustments in daily distribution plans. In this way any unforeseen disruptions in the vaccine supply chain can be coped with.