A COVID-19 vaccination model for Aotearoa New Zealand.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 2720, 2022 02 17.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1900625
ABSTRACT
We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effect of New Zealand's vaccine rollout on the potential spread and health impacts of COVID-19. The main purpose of this study is to provide a basis for policy advice on border restrictions and control measures in response to outbreaks that may occur during the vaccination roll-out. The model can be used to estimate the theoretical population immunity threshold, which represents a point in the vaccine rollout at which border restrictions and other controls could be removed and only small, occasional outbreaks would take place. We find that, with a basic reproduction number of 6, approximately representing the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, and under baseline vaccine effectiveness assumptions, reaching the population immunity threshold would require close to 100% of the total population to be vaccinated. Since this coverage is not likely to be achievable in practice, relaxing controls completely would risk serious health impacts. However, the higher vaccine coverage is, the more collective protection the population has against adverse health outcomes from COVID-19, and the easier it will become to control outbreaks. There remains considerable uncertainty in model outputs, in part because of the potential for the evolution of new variants. If new variants arise that are more transmissible or vaccine resistant, an increase in vaccine coverage will be needed to provide the same level of protection.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
Vaccination
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Oceania
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-022-06707-5
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