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A global report on the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and hospitalization: A fractional order model with non-local kernel.
Ahmad, Zubair; El-Kafrawy, Sherif A; Alandijany, Thamir A; Giannino, Francesco; Mirza, Ahmed A; El-Daly, Mai M; Faizo, Arwa A; Bajrai, Leena H; Kamal, Mohammad Amjad; Azhar, Esam I.
  • Ahmad Z; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Universit'a degli Studi della Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli", Caserta 81100, Italy. Electronic address: xubair5383@gmail.com.
  • El-Kafrawy SA; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: saelkfrawy@kau.edu.sa.
  • Alandijany TA; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: talandijany@kau.edu.sa.
  • Giannino F; Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, Portici, Italy. Electronic address: giannino@unina.it.
  • Mirza AA; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: amirza1@kau.edu.sa.
  • El-Daly MM; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: meldaly@kau.edu.sa.
  • Faizo AA; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: aafaizo@kau.edu.sa.
  • Bajrai LH; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Biochemistry Department, Faculty of Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: lbajrai@kau.edu.sa.
  • Kamal MA; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Institutes for Systems Genetics, Frontiers Science Center for Disease-related Molecular Network, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China; Department of
  • Azhar EI; Special Infectious Agents Unit, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Electronic address: eazhar@kau.edu.sa.
Comput Biol Chem ; 98: 107645, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1693749
ABSTRACT
In this paper, a compartmental mathematical model has been utilized to gain a better insight about the future dynamics of COVID-19. The total human population is divided into eight various compartments including susceptible, exposed, pre-asymptomatic, asymptomatic, symptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered or removed individuals. The problem was modeled in terms of highly nonlinear coupled system of classical order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) which was further generalized with the Atangana-Balaeanu (ABC) fractional derivative in Caputo sense with nonlocal kernel. Furthermore, some theoretical analyses have been done such as boundedness, positivity, existence and uniqueness of the considered. Disease-free and endemic equilibrium points were also assessed. The basic reproduction was calculated through next generation technique. Due to high risk of infection, in the present study, we have considered the reported cases from three continents namely Americas, Europe, and south-east Asia. The reported cases were considered between 1st May 2021 and 31st July 2021 and on the basis of this data, the spread of infection is predicted for the next 200 days. The graphical solution of the considered nonlinear fractional model was obtained via numerical scheme by implementing the MATLAB software. Based on the fitted values of parameters, the basic reproduction number ℜ0 for the case of America, Asia and Europe were calculated as ℜ0≈2.92819, ℜ0≈2.87970 and ℜ0≈2.23507 respectively. It is also observed that the spread of infection in America is comparatively high followed by Asia and Europe. Moreover, the effect of fractional parameter is shown on the dynamics of spread of infection among different classes. Additionally, the effect of quarantined and treatment of infected individuals is also shown graphically. From the present analysis it is observed that awareness of being quarantine and proper treatment can reduce the infection rate dramatically and a minimal variation in quarantine and treatment rates of infected individuals can lead us to decrease the rate of infection.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Quarantine / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Comput Biol Chem Journal subject: Biology / Medical Informatics / Chemistry Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Quarantine / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Comput Biol Chem Journal subject: Biology / Medical Informatics / Chemistry Year: 2022 Document Type: Article