OPTIMAL TALENT MANAGEMENT OF THE ACQUISITION WORKFORCE IN RESPONSE TO COVID-19: DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH

ABSTRACT

The authors use a unique panel dataset of DoD civilian acquisition workers and a dynamic programming approach to simulate the impact of the pandemic on employee retention rates under a variety of recovery scenarios. While most world economies contracted in 2020, there is some consensus among economists of a relatively robust recovery in the near future, with average global economic growth projected to be about 5.5% in 2021 (International Monetary Fund, 2021). After calibrating the model parameters to the Defense Acquisition Workforce using a unique panel administrative personnel dataset that tracks the civilian DoD labor force over the span of 30 years, we simulate civilian-side labor market shocks that correspond to economic recoveries of varying speeds and forecast the retention behavior of the workforce. [...]the recovery of the rest of the world;additional federal, state, and local fiscal stimuli;as well as permanent changes in the economy, such as expanded work-from-home and reconfiguration of global supply chains, may impact the private-sector labor market for years to come.