Multi-Agent modeling of the spread of diseases using the example of coronavirus disease COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Throughout the history of humanity, large-scale epidemics and pandemics have repeatedly erupted. Athenian ulcer, several plague and cholera pandemics, Spanish flu, Avian influenza, Swine influenza, HIV/AIDS-millions of people have died due to lack of medicines and medical knowledge. In the 21st century, it would seem that world medicine is ready and capable of preventing many diseases, but by the beginning of 2020, a new pandemic of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus broke out. The paper provided a brief systematic overview of modeling methods in epidemiology. A modified SEIRD simulation model of epidemic spread is presented. The proposed model was implemented in the AnyLogic system. © 2021 IEEE.