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COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020.
Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Verbeeck, Johan; Deboosere, Patrick; Abrams, Steven; Willem, Lander; Aerts, Jan; Theeten, Heidi; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Bustos Sierra, Natalia; Renard, Françoise; Herzog, Sereina; Lusyne, Patrick; Van der Heyden, Johan; Van Oyen, Herman; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel.
  • Molenberghs G; Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
  • Faes C; I-BioStat, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
  • Verbeeck J; Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
  • Deboosere P; Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
  • Abrams S; Interface Demography (ID), Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Willem L; Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
  • Aerts J; Global Health Institute (GHI), Family Medicine and Population Health, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Theeten H; Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Devleesschauwer B; Data Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
  • Bustos Sierra N; Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination (CEV), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Renard F; Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Herzog S; Department of Translational Physiology, Infectiology and Public Health, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
  • Lusyne P; Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Van der Heyden J; Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Van Oyen H; Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
  • Van Damme P; Statistics Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Hens N; Department of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Euro Surveill ; 27(7)2022 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1703383
ABSTRACT
BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 1560-7917.Es.2022.27.7.2002060

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 1560-7917.Es.2022.27.7.2002060