Forecasting emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern.
PLoS One
; 17(2): e0264198, 2022.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1703502
ABSTRACT
We consider whether one can forecast the emergence of variants of concern in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and similar pandemics. We explore methods of population genetics and identify key relevant principles in both deterministic and stochastic models of spread of infectious disease. Finally, we demonstrate that fitness variation, defined as a trait for which an increase in its value is associated with an increase in net Darwinian fitness if the value of other traits are held constant, is a strong indicator of imminent transition in the viral population.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Forecasting
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0264198
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