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Using the SEIR model to constrain the role of contaminated fomites in spreading an epidemic: An application to COVID-19 in the UK.
Meiksin, Avery.
  • Meiksin A; School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FD, UK.
Math Biosci Eng ; 19(4): 3564-3590, 2022 02 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1703601
ABSTRACT
The use of the SEIR model of compartmentalized population dynamics with an added fomite term is analysed as a means of statistically quantifying the contribution of contaminated fomites to the spread of a viral epidemic. It is shown that for normally expected lifetimes of a virus on fomites, the dynamics of the populations are nearly indistinguishable from the case without fomites. With additional information, such as the change in social contacts following a lockdown, however, it is shown that, under the assumption that the reproduction number for direct infection is proportional to the number of social contacts, the population dynamics may be used to place meaningful statistical constraints on the role of fomites that are not affected by the lockdown. The case of the Spring 2020 UK lockdown in response to COVID-19 is presented as an illustration. An upper limit is found on the transmission rate by contaminated fomites of fewer than 1 in 30 per day per infectious person (95% CL) when social contact information is taken into account. Applied to postal deliveries and food packaging, the upper limit on the contaminated fomite transmission rate corresponds to a probability below 1 in 70 (95% CL) that a contaminated fomite transmits the infection. The method presented here may be helpful for guiding health policy over the contribution of some fomites to the spread of infection in other epidemics until more complete risk assessments based on mechanistic modelling or epidemiological investigations may be completed.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Math Biosci Eng Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Mbe.2022164

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Math Biosci Eng Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Mbe.2022164