Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing.
Nat Hum Behav
; 6(2): 193-206, 2022 02.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1704182
ABSTRACT
The greatest hope for a return to normalcy following the COVID-19 pandemic is worldwide vaccination. Yet, a relaxation of social distancing that allows increased transmissibility, coupled with selection pressure due to vaccination, will probably lead to the emergence of vaccine resistance. We analyse the evolutionary dynamics of COVID-19 in the presence of dynamic contact reduction and in response to vaccination. We use infection and vaccination data from six different countries. We show that under slow vaccination, resistance is very likely to appear even if social distancing is maintained. Under fast vaccination, the emergence of mutants can be prevented if social distancing is maintained during vaccination. We analyse multiple human factors that affect the evolutionary potential of the virus, including the extent of dynamic social distancing, vaccination campaigns, vaccine design, boosters and vaccine hesitancy. We provide guidelines for policies that aim to minimize the probability of emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Mass Vaccination
/
Drug Resistance, Viral
/
Immunogenicity, Vaccine
/
Physical Distancing
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
SARS-CoV-2
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Hum Behav
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41562-021-01281-8
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