DOMESTIC TOURISM, ITS POTENTIAL TO COMPENSATE THE OUTAGE OF INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS CAUSED BY COVID-19 AND THE VULNERABILITY OF DIFFERENT GROUPS OF COUNTRIES (A CLUSTER ANALYSIS)

ABSTRACT

Tourism is the most affected industry by the pandemic COVID-19 and will be probably also the last one to recover. International organizations UNWTO, WTTC, and others suppose that domestic tourism will play a significant role in 2020 and after. However, domestic tourism is not a universal solution for all destinations. This work aims to identify groups of countries with different potentials of domestic tourism for survival during and for recovery of tourism after the COVID-19 pandemic and their economic vulnerability. Based on the literature, the factors of tourism development were identified, and the current state of domestic tourism was considered. For the identification of the decisive factors, a correlation analysis is conducted. For cluster analysis, four main types of variables are involved (1) economic factors (GDP, GDP per capita), (2) non-economic factors (Travel &Tourism Competitiveness Index, domestic tourism history), (3) vulnerability of the economy from the tourism point of view (share of tourism on GDP, share on employment), and (4) tourism receipts and tourism expenditures connected as the tourism balance. Based on the data from 2018 and 2019 from 41 countries, the cluster analysis identified six groups of countries with different potential of domestic tourism to support the survival of the tourism businesses and drive recovery in the post-pandemic period.