The Impact of Quarantine and Medical Resources on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan based on a Household Model.
Bull Math Biol
; 84(4): 47, 2022 02 26.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1712322
ABSTRACT
In order to understand how Wuhan curbed the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, we build a network transmission model of 123 dimensions incorporating the impact of quarantine and medical resources as well as household transmission. Using our new model, the final infection size of Wuhan is predicted to be 50,662 (95%CI 46,234, 55,493), and the epidemic would last until April 25 (95%CI April 23, April 29), which are consistent with the actual situation. It is shown that quarantining close contacts greatly reduces the final size and shorten the epidemic duration. The opening of Fangcang shelter hospitals reduces the final size by about 17,000. Had the number of hospital beds been sufficient when the lockdown started, the number of deaths would have been reduced by at least 54.26%. We also investigate the distribution of infectious individuals in unquarantined households of different sizes. The high-risk households are those with size from two to four before the peak time, while the households with only one member have the highest risk after the peak time. Our findings provide a reference for the prevention, mitigation and control of COVID-19 in other cities of the world.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
COVID-19
/
Epidemiological Models
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Bull Math Biol
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11538-021-00989-y
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