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The peak and size of COVID-19 in India: SARIMA and forecast
Demography India ; 50(2):75-86, 2021.
Article in English | GIM | ID: covidwho-1717524
ABSTRACT
Following the USA, India ranks the second position globally for COVID-19 cases in the pandemic year 2020. The study intends to explore the epidemiological stage of COVID-19 disease by estimating the most warranted features peak and size of COVID-19 cases in India. Data for this study was retrieved from a publicly available COVID19-India application programming interface (API). Exponential model was applied to estimate the growth rates of daily COVID-19 cases. Seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed for the growth rates to predict daily COVID-19 cases. The exponential model unravels a shift and a modest decline in the growth of daily COVID-19 cases. The study shows that the SARIMA model is suitable for projecting daily COVID-19 cases. The forecasted peak value of daily COVID-19 cases was approximately 104,000 COVID-19 cases on 19 September 2020, whereas the real-time peak value was 97,861 COVID-19 cases conspicuous on 16 September 2020. The projected size of COVID-19 disease was 105 lakhs versus 103 lakhs at the end of December 2020. The forecasts and projections is adjoining to the real-time peak value of daily COVID-19 cases in India and successfully explores the epidemiological stage of COVID-19 disease in India.
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Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: GIM Language: English Journal: Demography India Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: GIM Language: English Journal: Demography India Year: 2021 Document Type: Article