The peak and size of COVID-19 in India: SARIMA and forecast
Demography India
; 50(2):75-86, 2021.
Article
in English
| GIM | ID: covidwho-1717524
ABSTRACT
Following the USA, India ranks the second position globally for COVID-19 cases in the pandemic year 2020. The study intends to explore the epidemiological stage of COVID-19 disease by estimating the most warranted features peak and size of COVID-19 cases in India. Data for this study was retrieved from a publicly available COVID19-India application programming interface (API). Exponential model was applied to estimate the growth rates of daily COVID-19 cases. Seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed for the growth rates to predict daily COVID-19 cases. The exponential model unravels a shift and a modest decline in the growth of daily COVID-19 cases. The study shows that the SARIMA model is suitable for projecting daily COVID-19 cases. The forecasted peak value of daily COVID-19 cases was approximately 104,000 COVID-19 cases on 19 September 2020, whereas the real-time peak value was 97,861 COVID-19 cases conspicuous on 16 September 2020. The projected size of COVID-19 disease was 105 lakhs versus 103 lakhs at the end of December 2020. The forecasts and projections is adjoining to the real-time peak value of daily COVID-19 cases in India and successfully explores the epidemiological stage of COVID-19 disease in India.
coronavirus disease 2019; pandemics; viral diseases; human diseases; Arima; epidemiology; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; man; India; Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirinae; Coronaviridae; Nidovirales; positive-sense ssRNA Viruses; ssRNA Viruses; RNA Viruses; viruses; Commonwealth of Nations; lower-middle income countries; medium Human Development Index countries; South Asia; Asia; Homo; Hominidae; primates; mammals; vertebrates; Chordata; animals; eukaryotes; SARS-CoV-2; viral infections; autoregressive integrated moving average
Search on Google
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
GIM
Language:
English
Journal:
Demography India
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS