Prediction and Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Situation via Modified SEIR Model with Asymptomatic Infection

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the prediction and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic situation based on a modified SEIR model with asymptomatic infection. First, by considering the self-isolation and asymptomatic infection, a modified SEIR model is proposed to predict and evaluate the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China. Then, based on the daily data reported by the Health Commission of Hubei Province, the modified SEIR model is solved numerically, and the parameters of the modified model are inverted by the least square method. Third, based on the modified model, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Hubei Province is predicted and verified. The simulation results show that the modified SEIR model is significant and reliable to describe the spread property of the COVID-19, thereby providing a potential theoretical support for the decision-making of epidemic prevention and control in the future. © 2021 IEEE.