Tze Leung Lai and Anna Choi's contribution to the discussion of 'Testing by betting: A strategy for statistical and scientific communication' by Glenn Shafer

ABSTRACT

Comments on an article by Glenn Shafer (see record 2021-44219-001). It is exciting to follow Glenn Shafer's investigations into forecasting, betting, reasoning with uncertainty and foundational issues in probability, beginning with his 1973 PhD thesis at Princeton and culminating in Shafer on the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions, and its evolution during the past five decades to the present paper on betting scores and game-theoretic probability. Betting scores are particularly relevant in this momentous year of intensive global search for COVID19 vaccines and treatments, and upcoming presidential and congressional elections in the United States, about which pundits keep giving time-varying forecasts of the outcomes while betting markets on presidential election odds have been particularly active, similar to online sports betting markets. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)