Impact of COVID-19 state-level hospital capacity on overall stroke mortality in 2020 in The United States

ABSTRACT

Background: Although hospital admissions for stroke declined in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, patients with comorbid COVID-19 and stroke had increased mortality. We explored stroke mortality in 2020 and its association with COVID-19 prevalence and state-level hospital capacities. Methods: We analyzed CDC National Vital Statistics System and COVID Data Tracker data from 2017-2020. The primary outcome was age-adjusted stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic) mortality rate per 100,000. The secondary outcome was % change in state-level stroke mortality rates in 2020 (vs. 2017-19);we report its correlation with state-level 1) prevalence of confirmed COVID-19 infections by 12/31/2021, 2) total COVID mortality by 12/31/20, and the 2020 average state-level % of 3) hospital and 4) ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Results: Figure 1A shows the typical seasonal decline in stroke mortality in quarters 2/3 was attenuated in 2020. The % change in state-level stroke mortality in 2020 (Figure 1B) was not correlated with prevalence of COVID-19 infection (rho=0.05, p=0.74), mortality (rho=0.10, p=0.49), or the % of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients (rho=0.24, p=0.09). There was a correlation with % of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients (rho=0.35, p=0.01) (Figure 2) Conclusion: Overall stroke mortality increased in 2020, particularly in Q2/3, the early-to-mid phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the state level, the average % of all hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients in 2020 was the only COVID-19 metric associated with change in stroke mortality. Future work should determine if this association was due to decreased hospital capacity to deliver standard stroke care.