Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation.
Infect Dis Model
; 7(2): 1-24, 2022 Jun.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1729801
ABSTRACT
Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the 'Diamond Princess' enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Language:
English
Journal:
Infect Dis Model
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.idm.2022.02.001
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