Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation.
Wen, Conghua; Wei, Junwei; Ma, Zheng Feei; He, Mu; Zhao, Shi; Ji, Jiayu; He, Daihai.
  • Wen C; Department of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China.
  • Wei J; Department of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China.
  • Ma ZF; Department of Health and Environmental Science, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China.
  • He M; Department of Foundational Mathematics, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China.
  • Zhao S; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
  • Ji J; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China.
  • He D; Department of Kinesiology & Physical Education, University of Toronto, CA, Canada.
Infect Dis Model ; 7(2): 1-24, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1729801
ABSTRACT
Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the 'Diamond Princess' enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Infect Dis Model Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.idm.2022.02.001

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Infect Dis Model Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.idm.2022.02.001