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Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination.
Kontis, Vasilis; Bennett, James E; Parks, Robbie M; Rashid, Theo; Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Asaria, Perviz; Zhou, Bin; Guillot, Michel; Mathers, Colin D; Khang, Young-Ho; McKee, Martin; Ezzati, Majid.
  • Kontis V; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Bennett JE; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Parks RM; The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Rashid T; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Pearson-Stuttard J; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Asaria P; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Zhou B; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Guillot M; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Mathers CD; Population Studies Center, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Khang YH; French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), Paris, France.
  • McKee M; Independent Researcher, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • Ezzati M; Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
Wellcome Open Res ; 6: 279, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1732490
ABSTRACT

Background:

Industrialised countries had varied responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how they adapted to new situations and knowledge since it began. These differences in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 as well as other diseases.

Methods:

We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in these countries.

Results:

Over the entire year, an estimated 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) more people died in these countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not happened. This is equivalent to 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (14-17) increase in deaths in all these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Conclusions:

Until the great majority of national and global populations have vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the death toll of the pandemic from COVID-19 and other diseases will require actions to delay and contain infections and continue routine health care.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Topics: Vaccines Language: English Journal: Wellcome Open Res Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Wellcomeopenres.17253.2

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Topics: Vaccines Language: English Journal: Wellcome Open Res Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Wellcomeopenres.17253.2