Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 4339, 2022 03 14.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1740464
ABSTRACT
We propose a novel Timed Intervention S, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. The proposed model introduces a series of timed interventions that can account for the influence of real time changes in government policy and social norms. We consider three separate types of interventions:
(i) Protectiveinterventions:
Where population moves from susceptible to protected corresponding to mask mandates, stay-at-home orders and/or social distancing. (ii) Releaseinterventions:
Where population moves from protected to susceptible corresponding to social distancing mandates and practices being lifted by policy or pandemic fatigue. (iii) Vaccinationinterventions:
Where population moves from susceptible, protected, and exposed to recovered (meaning immune) corresponding to the mass immunization of the U.S. Population. By treating the pandemic with timed interventions, we are able to model the pandemic extremely effectively, as well as directly predicting the course of the pandemic under differing sets of intervention schedules. We show that without prompt effective protective/vaccination interventions the pandemic will be extended significantly and result in many millions of deaths in the U.S.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Influenza, Human
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-022-07487-8
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