Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model.
Hachtel, Gary D; Stack, John D; Hachtel, Jordan A.
  • Hachtel GD; Department of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA. hachtel@colorado.edu.
  • Stack JD; Department of Physics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
  • Hachtel JA; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA. hachtelja@ornl.gov.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 4339, 2022 03 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1740464
ABSTRACT
We propose a novel Timed Intervention S, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. The proposed model introduces a series of timed interventions that can account for the influence of real time changes in government policy and social norms. We consider three separate types of

interventions:

(i) Protective

interventions:

Where population moves from susceptible to protected corresponding to mask mandates, stay-at-home orders and/or social distancing. (ii) Release

interventions:

Where population moves from protected to susceptible corresponding to social distancing mandates and practices being lifted by policy or pandemic fatigue. (iii) Vaccination

interventions:

Where population moves from susceptible, protected, and exposed to recovered (meaning immune) corresponding to the mass immunization of the U.S. Population. By treating the pandemic with timed interventions, we are able to model the pandemic extremely effectively, as well as directly predicting the course of the pandemic under differing sets of intervention schedules. We show that without prompt effective protective/vaccination interventions the pandemic will be extended significantly and result in many millions of deaths in the U.S.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Influenza, Human / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-022-07487-8

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Influenza, Human / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-022-07487-8