Assessing asymmetric determinants of commodity-level exports: the role of policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the economic consequences of non-pharmaceutical government intervention to curb disease spread on Indian commodity-level exports. This is the first study to assess the export implications of the pandemic using a panel linear as well as a novel non-linear ARDL framework. Our results show that pandemic-related stringencies have a positive effect on Indian exports in the long-run. This result holds valid for domestic as well export destination countriesModified Letter Turned Comma stringencies. However, our evidence suggests that reducing stringencies has a more dominating effect on Indian exports than tightening of stringencies. Also, stringencies and uncertainty impact exports adversely in the short-run. Furthermore, pandemic-related financial uncertainty is found to have a dampening effect on exporting. Our results also show a significant asymmetric impact of policy responses on exports, especially for agriculture and manufacturing commodities, while mineral products are relatively less impacted.