Effectiveness of social distancing interventions in containing COVID-19 incidence: International evidence using Kalman filter.

ABSTRACT

The epidemiological literature has widely documented the importance of social distancing interventions in containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemiological measure of virus reproduction, R0, provides a myopic view of containment, especially when the absolute number of cases is still high. The paper investigates cross-country variations concerning the impact of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 incidence by employing a statistical measure of containment, which models the daily number of cases as a structural time-series, state-space vector. Countries that adopt strict lockdown policies and provide economic support in the form of income augmentations and debt relief improve the response towards the pandemic. Countries like China and South Korea have been most influential in containing the spread of infections. European nations of France, Italy, Spain and the UK are witnessing a second wave of the virus, indicating that re-opening the European economy perhaps has instigated an exponential spread.