Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

ABSTRACT

Although HIV caused one of the worst epidemics since the late twentieth century, China and the U.S. has made substantial progress to control the spread of HIV/AIDS. However, the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence remain unclear in both countries. Therefore, this study aimed to highlight the long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence by gender in China and the U.S. population. The data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database since it would be helpful to assess the impact/role of designed policies in the control of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries. The age-period-cohort (APC) model and join-point regression analysis were employed to estimate the age-period-cohort effect and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) on HIV incidence. Between 1994 and 2019, we observed an oscillating trend of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China and an increasing ASIR trend in the U.S. Despite the period effect in China declined for both genders after peaked in 2004, the age effect in China grew among the young (from 15-19 to 25-29) and the old age groups (from 65-69 to 75-79). Similarly, the cohort effect increased among those born in the early (from 1924-1928 to 1934-1938) and the latest birth groups (from 1979-1983 to 2004-2009). In the case of the U.S., the age effect declined after it peaked in the 25-29 age group. People born in recent birth groups had a higher cohort effect than those born in early groups. In both countries, women were less infected by HIV than men. Therefore, besides effective strategies and awareness essential to protect the young age groups from HIV risk factors, the Chinese government should pay attention to the elderly who lacked family support and were exposed to HIV risk factors.