Identification of warning signs in Malaysian patients having COVID-19 infection who progress to severe form of the illness

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus, now widely known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which has caused 3 major pandemic waves in Malaysia. We aimed to identify the warning signs as indicators that predict the progression of disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients more than 12 years of age presenting with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted in three separate hospitals around the country. RESULTS: Of the 228 patients initially admitted with mild illness, 47 had progressed requiring oxygen. The median time from admission to deterioration was 3 days (IQR 2 - 5). Age more than ≥50years old (median age = 42.5, IQR = 28.8 - 57.0), higher temperature (mean = 37.3, IQR 36.8 - 38.0), MEWS score >3 (9, 19.1%), Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >3.13 , (18, 38.3%) C-reactive protein (CRP) >5. (12, 27.3%), multiple zonal involvement on the chest radiography on admission (2, IQR 1-3) were more common in the deteriorated group on admission. On multivariate analysis, multiple comorbidities (HR = 7.40, 95 percent CI 2.58-21.2, p0.001), presence of persistent fever (HR = 2.88, 95 percent CI 1.15 - 7.2, p = 0.024), MEWS scoring >3 (HR of 6.72 ;95 percent CI 2.81-16.0, p0.001) were associated with progression to severe illness. CONCLUSION: In our cohort, we found that several factors were associated with the severity of COVID19. Early detection of these factors could correctly identify patients who need more intensive monitoring, and early referral for ICU care.