The post-pandemic future of shrinking cities

ABSTRACT

Urban population loss is driven by a mix of natural population decline and negative net migration. Put simply, cities shrink when deaths outpace births and residents leave. Shock events, like pandemics or wars, ran exacerbate both. The uneven geographic and socio-spatial impacts oi· COYID-19 may reinforce existing downward urban demographic trajectories and even forge new shrinking cities. As the global death toll passes 1 million we examine demographic and socio-economic trends to contemplate the post-pandemic future oi· shrinking cities, reflect upon inequality and innovation across LIS cities and regions, and reaffirm five propositions for just and equitable planning in shrinking cities. Although we concentrate primarily on the American context, much of the discussion is applicable throughout the world due to the global nature of both the pandemic and urban shrinkage.