Methodological elements for the comparative analysis of the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic in France, Italy, and Spain

ABSTRACT

The three European countries included in the northwest littoral of the Mediterranean region - Italy, France and Spain - reported their first cases of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus early in 2020. The subsequent epidemic strongly impacted these countries, challenging the healthcare systems efficiency, and the capacity and transparency of their public statistics structures. Because public statistics were not fully adapted to such a new health situation, the available official data could not wholly describe the epidemic correctly. This paper developed an indicator derived from the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 aiming to describe the time and spatial dynamics of the epidemic. Although the analysis was not applied to France due to the lack of data available, the comparative analysis among Spain and Italy highlighted some similarities and certain divergences, partially attributable to the features of each country`s national demographic patterns and the peculiarities of applied health protocols. Finally, mortality during the first wave of the epidemic has been analysed for the three countries, demonstrating higher mortality index in Spain, although the reported number of SARS-CoV-2 declared deaths does not explain a portion of this mortality excess.