Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China.
Emerg Microbes Infect
; 11(1): 1205-1214, 2022 Dec.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1774288
ABSTRACT
SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme has been extended to children aged 3-11 years. Here, we aim to assess whether, in this vaccination landscape, the importation of Delta variant infections could shift COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to simulate epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years, and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could have led to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 89% across the eligible age groups. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3-11 years (as it was the case since the end of October 2021) is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations within this age group (39% and 68%, respectively, when considering a vaccination coverage of 87%), but would have a low impact on protecting infants. Our findings highlight the importance of including children among the target population and the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by increasing vaccine effectiveness.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Vaccines
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Humans
/
Infant
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Emerg Microbes Infect
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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