Prediction New Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Methods

ABSTRACT

The addition of Covid-19 cases is still uncontrolled, especially in Indonesia. Often the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia always experiences a significant upward trend after a slightly loose government policy. This is because the government does not think there will be a spike in cases after cases go down. This is where the importance of predicting new cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia to be a reference for the government in taking policy. With deep learning, the prediction results will be more accurate. The implementation of vector autoregression (VAR) and long-short term memory (LSTM) methods can reach an accretion rate of up to 98%. With this method, the prediction results can be used for the government in anticipating if there is a surge in new cases per day because it has been predicted from the beginning. In fact, this method can predict new cases for up to a year. © 2021 IEEE.