MIGRATION EFFECT ON THE COMPETITIVE GROWTH IN GERMANY AND THE UK

ABSTRACT

The article considers the impact of migration processes on the GDP per capita. Numerous studies examine the reasons for changes in the vector of migration policy and indicate various factors of migration influx rate. However, the most recent observations indicate an almost stagnant migration flow being affected by the COVID-19. As a result of the ongoing impacts, the requirements for the quality of human capital will be changed completely, and the volume of GDP will be decreased. As examples of two countries, Germany and Great Britain, having different migration policy approaches, authors analyze the importance of migration flows. Based on this fact, the authors suggest that migration processes can be one of the statistically significant factors affecting GDP per capita. It also can be used in the building of mathematical forecasting models. Analyses of variance (ANOVA) method is used to test the hypothesis. The linear regression is used to build models and show how factor influences the linear approximation. As a result, the hypothesis of the impact of the migration flows on GDP per capita was confirmed with the econometric models' support and their indicated explanatory abilities. Inflation and unemployment rates were considered as complement factors. The results of the models allow predicting migration policy based on migration quotas. (C) 2021 Published by European Publisher.