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Population-level implications of the Israeli booster campaign to curtail COVID-19 resurgence.
Gavish, Nir; Yaari, Rami; Huppert, Amit; Katriel, Guy.
  • Gavish N; Faculty of Mathematics, Technion Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel.
  • Yaari R; Bio-statistical and Bio-mathematical Unit, Gertner Institute for Epidemiology & Health Policy Research, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan 52621, Israel.
  • Huppert A; Bio-statistical and Bio-mathematical Unit, Gertner Institute for Epidemiology & Health Policy Research, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan 52621, Israel.
  • Katriel G; School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv-Yafo 6997801, Israel.
Sci Transl Med ; 14(647): eabn9836, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1784767
ABSTRACT
Israel was one of the first countries to administer mass vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Consequently, it was among the first countries to experience substantial breakthrough infections due to the waning of vaccine-induced immunity, which led to a resurgence of the epidemic. In response, Israel launched a booster campaign to mitigate the outbreak and was the first country to do so. Israel's success in curtailing the Delta resurgence while imposing only mild nonpharmaceutical interventions influenced the decision of many countries to initiate a booster campaign. By constructing a detailed mathematical model and calibrating it to the Israeli data, we extend the understanding of the impact of the booster campaign from the individual to the population level. We used the calibrated model to explore counterfactual scenarios in which the booster vaccination campaign is altered by changing the eligibility criteria or the start time of the campaign and to assess the direct and indirect effects in the different scenarios. The results point to the vast benefits of vaccinating younger age groups that are not at a high risk of developing severe disease but play an important role in transmission. We further show that, when the epidemic is exponentially growing, the success of the booster campaign is highly sensitive to the timing of its initiation. Hence, a rapid response is an important factor in reducing disease burden using booster vaccination.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Sci Transl Med Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Scitranslmed.abn9836

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Sci Transl Med Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Scitranslmed.abn9836