Evaluation of the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 prevalence by the distributed lag nonlinear model.
J Transl Med
; 20(1): 170, 2022 04 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1785158
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Although numerous studies have explored the impact of meteorological factors on the epidemic of COVID-19, their relationship remains controversial and needs to be clarified.METHODS:
We assessed the risk effect of various meteorological factors on COVID-19 infection using the distributed lag nonlinear model, based on related data from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, in eight countries, including Portugal, Greece, Egypt, South Africa, Paraguay, Uruguay, South Korea, and Japan, which are in Europe, Africa, South America, and Asia, respectively. We also explored associations between COVID-19 prevalence and individual meteorological factors by the Spearman's rank correlation test.RESULTS:
There were significant non-linear relationships between both temperature and relative humidity and COVID-19 prevalence. In the countries located in the Northern Hemisphere with similar latitudes, the risk of COVID-19 infection was the highest at temperature below 5 â. In the countries located in the Southern Hemisphere with similar latitudes, their highest infection risk occurred at around 15 â. Nevertheless, in most countries, high temperature showed no significant association with reduced risk of COVID-19 infection. The effect pattern of relative humidity on COVID-19 depended on the range of its variation in countries. Overall, low relative humidity was correlated with increased risk of COVID-19 infection, while the high risk of infection at extremely high relative humidity could occur in some countries. In addition, relative humidity had a longer lag effect on COVID-19 than temperature.CONCLUSIONS:
The effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 prevalence are nonlinear and hysteretic. Although low temperature and relative humidity may lower the risk of COVID-19, high temperature or relative humidity could also be associated with a high prevalence of COVID-19 in some regions.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
/
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Transl Med
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12967-022-03371-1
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