Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Future Rice Yields in Global Major Rice-Producing Regions.

ABSTRACT

Under the dual impacts of climate change and COVID-19, there are great risks to the world's food security. Rice is one of the three major food crops of the world. Assessing the impact of climate change on future rice production is very important for ensuring global food security. This article divides the world's main rice-producing regions into four regions and uses a multivariate nonlinear model based on historical economic and climatic data to explore the impacts of historical extreme climatic events and economic factors on rice yield. Based on these historical models, future climatic data, and economic data under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the yields of four major rice-producing regions of the world under different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) are predicted. The research results reveal that under different climate change scenarios, extreme high-temperature events (Tx90p) and extreme precipitation events (Rx5day, R99pTOT) in the four major rice-producing regions have an upward trend in the future. Extreme low-temperature events (Tn10p) have a downward trend. In the rice-producing regions of Southeast Asia and South America, extreme precipitation events will increase significantly in the future. The prediction results of this model indicate that the rice output of these four major rice-producing regions will show an upward trend in the future. Although extreme precipitation events will have a negative impact on rice production, future increases in rice planting areas, economic development, and population growth will all contribute to an increase in rice production. The increase in food demand caused by population growth also brings uncertainty to global food security. This research is helpful for further understanding climate change trends and risks to global rice-production areas in the future and provides an important reference for global rice-production planning and risk management.