Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic in Iran: A Model With Vaccination

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a major health threat caused by a virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 can cause acute respiratory illness, which is deadly in some people. Epidemio-logically, vaccination is the safest and most effective approach to gaining immunity and fighting against viral diseases. In this paper, the extended compartmental SEIR model, considering vaccination as a pharmaceutical intervention, to assess the behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran is proposed. Initially, some mathematical analysis of the model, including positivity, boundedness, the basic reproduction number, and herd immunity is investigated. In order to validate the proposed model, the biological parameters of the model are estimated based on real-confirmed cases in Iran at a specified interval of time. Finally, to examine the concept of flattening the curve of the disease outbreak, the impacts of physical distancing and vaccination on mitigating the burden of the epidemic are compared graphically. © 2022 IEEE.