2SIR-VD Model to Compare Idealized COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Strategies in the Philippines

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a novel respiratory disease first identified in Wuhan, China, that is caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. It has triggered a global pandemic of historic proportions. The government of the Philippines began its national vaccine drive on 01 Mar 2021, with the goal of vaccinating 70 million of its citizens by the end of the calendar year. To determine the optimum geographical distribution strategy in the Philippines for the limited supply of vaccines that is currently available, we developed and adapted a basic SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that allows us to understand the evolution of a pandemic when public health authorities are vaccinating two susceptible populations within a country with different vaccine rates. Our analysis with our 2SIR-VD (two-population susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccinated-deceased) model of an idealized pandemic scenario revealed that prioritizing vaccine deployment to the National Capital Region (NCR) of the Philippines minimized the number of COVID-19 cases in the country. We, therefore, recommend deploying 80–90% of the available vaccine supply to the NCR to mitigate viral transmission there. The remaining doses would allow the rest of the archipelago to vaccinate all of their medical frontliners, senior citizens, and adults with comorbidities – thus shielding this vulnerable population against severe disease and death from COVID-19. © 2021, Department of Science and Technology. All rights reserved.