Dynamic characteristics and transmission mechanism of China's natural gas security situation

ABSTRACT

Building the index system of China's natural gas security and measuring the index have important meanings for on-line monitoring of natural gas safety, vigilance against potential risks of natural gas and guarantee of energy security. This paper innovatively applies the DMA-TVP-FAVAR model to build China's natural gas security comprehensive index (NGSI) from a dynamic perspective and systematically reviews its dynamic characteristics and transmission mechanism combined with the EEMD method and BP structure breaks test. The main conclusions are as follows Since 2001, NGSI has shown a wavelike decrease. Specifically, short-term unbalanced factors mainly cause short-term fluctuation of NGSI, the effects of significant events are the main driving force for medium-term fluctuation of NGSI, and natural gas supply and demand fundamentals are the long-term inherent trend of NGSI. Besides, different monetary policy tools have different efficiency on NGSI, and price-based monetary policy instruments are more effective than quantitative monetary policy instruments. © 2022, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.